This entry is going to be quite long, as it's the end of month report... From now onwards I'll be doing short updates every week or so (or less if i haven't played much), which will just include results and possibly some hands/thoughts. I'll then be doing a longer end of month report like this one.
RESULTS:
Oh No - Look at my redline... But hang on, look at my winrate.
In all seriousness playing against the type of fish I find most profitable (bad/stations/make nonsense bluffs/ etc...) I have always had a negative redline, always. It's not usually quite this extreme, but I put that down to variance, not wanting to start of this challenge losing and the fact that I'm playing only fish (when I play regs HU my redline is invariably positive, but still less than my blue line).
Obviously I've ran good, most obviously in EV terms. I haven't lost many flips and the EV has been exagerated by villains getting it in v v bad vs my range, but ending up flipping and me just not losing those flips. Having said that I've obviously run well across the board, as 32bb/100 is obviously not my true winrate, neither is 24bb/100 (my EV winrate). It's basically been pretty smooth sailing besides one nasty -$1,1k day.
RESULTS BREAKDOWN:
ROLL:
Stars = $2,025
Party = $2,635
KO = $5,356 (EURO 3,784)
PKR = $3,464
Neteller = $1,000
TOTAL = $14,480
TOTAL HANDS PLAYED = 9,269
TOTAL PROFIT = $4,480
TOTAL WITHDRAWN = $0
Notes:
- Left more on KO (even in euros) because thats the site i'll be primarily withdrawing from straight to my bank account, rather than going euro - $$$ - £££ and redepositting there also costs me xchange rate fees.
- 28% towards clearing a $200 bonus on Party
- 33% towards clearing a $400 bonus on PKR
- rakeback owed on PKR and KO
That's the results out the way.
I have done several things that, over the course of the first 10k hands have probably hindered my winrate by at least 3bb/100:
1. Played more than 3 tables at once. My play falls by quite a bit when I go from 3 villains to 4 different villains. I will only be playing 3 tabs max from now on, unless there's at least 2 v basic opponents.
2. Talked to you guys on Skype whilst playing. From now on if I have action, I'll just type "brb" and go offline on Skype. I'll return when the action leaves.
3. Played when real life tilted. The day that I lost $1k or so, I played after I had an argument and definitely didn't play my A game, and was basically going into the session pre-tilted (i also obviously ran bad that day too).
4. Got bored with playing $100nl. I have defs felt the feeling of not caring enough about $100nl in general, as it's obviosuly pretty low for me and it sometimes results in a lack of concentration.
So, I'm going to work on these off the table adjustments to hopefully keep my winrate high.
TAKING A $400NL SHOT:
I am going to take a 3 BI $400nl shot when I next play, below is the breakdown of how I'm going to approach it:
- I will continue to sit at $100nl and $200nl tables, but less $100nl tabs on sites like Party and PKR (unlimited tables) and replace those with $400nl tables.
- I will not be sitting at 400 EURO tabs on KO for the time being, it's a much bigger game and for your first shot is pretty uneccessary.
- I will only be playing players who are v clear losers and that aren't giving me any trouble. Any high variance villains or break even opponents will be avoided for my first shot.
- If my roll falls below $13,000 OR I lose 3 BI at $400nl (even if I'm winning lower), I'll discontinue my shot, at least for a few days and come up with a plan for when I take my nest $400nl shot.
SOME HANDS:
It's v difficult for me to find interesting hands, when I'm playing PURELY against absolute fish and my redline is so negative, the best I can do is a few hero calls and me saying "well, he's a station I have top pair, so i 3/4 pot it 3 times here.. ermm, yeah I won"
Here are 2 of the more interesting hands I could find:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?6168676
Villain was c-betting 77%, betting turns 44% and betting turns when he didn't bet the flop almost always. On the turn I was going to check call and c/r the river (as he would follow up on his turn bluff on most rivers. He checks back and I decide I have to lead riv to get value from Ace high or 33-66 etc... (std) when he raises (he did it v v quickly)... I was sure that in his mind he had the nuts.
His hand range, therefore, is something like this: 77, 88, 78, 79, 56, 6T, TJ, big 7s (K7, A7). For someone who's c-betting 77%, you would expect him to be c-betting all these hands on this flop, however, he'd already shown the perpensity to slow play lock hands to the river: http://www.pokerhand.org/?6168667 he checks back twice and bets $7.50 into $10 on the river (PKR hands don't convert properly he made it $5 pf and i called $3 more, $10 going to flop).
I decided after some deliberation that I had to 3bet for value, incase he'd slowplayed a bare 7 or made one of the straights I talked about. I was, however, doing this with a plan in mind, I was 100% folding if he shoved this river, as I thought he would neevr be shoving a straight and knowing that he c-bets 77%, but also slowplays when he flops lock hands. This would've been a pretty easy (although painful) fold if he were to shove the river. As it's PKR i didn't get to see what he had, but i'd guess it was A7 type of hand.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?6168688
This ones a lot simpler. This guy hadn't 3bet a hand yet (55 hands in). He also hadn't c/r a flop yet. He was calling from BB 62%.
Now obviously I have tonnes of equity vs anything on this flop when I c/r, but with the above facts in mind, I think he never has a worse draw than me (the fact the Ad is out there AND I have the 6d makes this even less likely) and he's neevr bluffing. So he has a pure valure c/r range of something like: AJ+ (slightly discounted), 55, 44 (discounted), A5, A4, 23s. with 64dd I'm around 45% vs that range and if you chuck the possibility of him ever having worse draws or bluffing then, it would be fine to 3bet the flop here with your hand. I just don't think though, with the info that we have, that that is the best line. I think peeling the flop c/r, we are going have a much better picture of what sort of hand he has by his turn sizing or if he checks and be able to make much more profitable decisions later in the hand than on the flop.
I peel, turn, esp when he checks = gin. Riv although it's a bad card for me, I'm ahead now 88% of the time vs the range Ive given him above (clue: way more hand combos of AJ-AK-23-A5, than 44(imposs now), 55, A4 that filled up.
OK! Hopefully future blogs won't be this long/take me this long to write, but I think it's worth reading.
Mark
ul
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